Thursday, September 24, 2009

Unbridled Unsoundness

The demise of Eight Belles in last year's Derby, the event that launched this blog, was in many ways the perfect storm of little things gone wrong, culminating in a catastrophic breakdown. Many factors contributed to her death---a punishing schedule too rigorous for such a young horse, her unusually large frame, the toe grabs on her shoes, and most importantly, her pedigree. It's a subject I've been meaning to discuss for ages now, and having observed the offspring of Unbridled's Song on the Triple Crown trail this year with interest, I think it's evident that many of his offspring are inherently unsound.

The first of the UBS horses in this crop to fall by the wayside was Midshipman, winner of the 2008 Breeders Cup Juvenile and champion 2 year-old colt. He made 4 starts, all of them as a two year-old, before being sidelined with a soft tissue injury in March 2009. He did not return to the track until this past weekend, and while he did win, it remains to be seen how many more starts he’ll make before re-injury and/or retirement.

The next to go was Old Fashioned, another of Larry Jones' charges. He made it through six starts, four of them wins, before being retired with a slab fracture in his right knee in April.

The last was Dunkirk who surprisingly made it all the way to June, running 11th in the Derby before coming back for a truly gutsy second place finish in the Belmont. He suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture in his left hind cannon bone in that race and is on the sidelines for the time being. (Despite being G1 placed, he has never won anything more than an allowance race, so it is likely he will be brought back to race if it all possible. Got to have that black type before he goes off to stud after all.) And despite actually making it through the Triple Crown, Dunkirk has only 5 starts to his name. Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra, by comparison, had each made 11 starts by that time.

These three colts are hardly the first of UBS's offspring to become injured on the Triple Crown trail. Over the last 10 years or so, it's become a frequent occurrence (for those UBS offspring who actually make it to the races). Buddha was a Derby favorite but retired just before that race with only 4 starts; Eurosilver managed 12 starts, but his career was plagued by injury; Half Ours fractured an ankle as a 2 year-old and was laid up for 19 months, only to return to the races at 4 where he fractured a cannon bone and was retired with only 7 starts; Rockport Harbor suffered regular setbacks in his career and made only 8 starts over 3 seasons. The list goes on and on.

To be fair, not all UBS offspring have shortened careers. Domestic Dispute raced 21 times in three seasons; Thorn Song has made 29 starts to date; and the Australian-bred gelding Grey Song made an astonishing 65 starts over 5 seasons. (Perhaps turf racing made the difference for Thorn Song and Grey Song?) Unfortunately, these horses are still anomalies when it comes to UBS offspring.

There is no doubt that horses sired by Unbridled’s Song are frequently fast and precocious. For breeders and owners alike, this often translates to a quick return on the stud fee ($125,000) or the purchase price. Or that is the hope at any rate. Dunkirk sold for $3.7 million as a yearling but has made only $393,200 in purses. Old Fashioned sold for $800,000, also as a yearling, and made $583,280. Given the high rate of attrition on the race track, buying a UBS horse seems like a very risky venture to me. Breeding to UBS with the intention of selling, however, appears to be a far more profitable venture. A quick scan of UBS’s page on the Stallion Register Online shows that his weanlings and yearlings on average bring two to three times the cost of his stud fee.

And therein lies the rub. So long as buyers continue to support UBS as a stallion by keeping his offspring in demand, he will continue to produce brilliant but unsound horses. Not only is this a bad idea in terms of investments, it is also extremely damaging to the sport---witness the media storm after Eight Belles broke down. Accidents like that drive fans away, both casual and die-hard, and even the non-fatal injuries that lead to premature retirements turn fans off. It’s hard to follow and get excited about a horse that only starts 4 or 5 times. It’s also not fun to watch a race and find that you’re more worried than excited and just hoping all the horses will come home in one piece.

The worst problem, however, with breeding unsound horses is the obvious one, the toll on the animals themselves. Is it not cruel to breed an animal with a greater risk of injury or fatal break down? Is it not a disservice to the American Thoroughbred to perpetuate unsoundness and fragility? What becomes of the UBS sons and daughters who did not accomplish enough on the track to be viable breeding animals and who are too unsound to have secondary careers as riding horses? (A long, cramped truck ride and then a bolt through the head...) The horse market is glutted already with poorly conformed, ill-bred, untrained equines of any breed and of no breed. The last thing we need is to add fragility to that equation, no matter how beautifully pedigreed.

So what's the solution? Short of gelding UBS, I'm not really sure. Breeder incentives for proven durable bloodlines? Bigger purses for races for 4 year-olds and up? Importation of new blood from Europe or South America? It's going to be an uphill slog no matter what, and I worry that it may take several more Eight Belles-like accidents before the American TB breeders get the message. Speed and precocity are so deeply entrenched in the mind set of so many breeders, pinhookers, and owners that I fear for the future of the breed.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Why I still like Rachel Alexandra despite Jess Jackson

A number of my racing fan friends have expressed an extreme dislike of Rachel Alexandra lately ((largely because of Jess Jackson), but I can't help but love this filly. We so rarely see fillies who race against the boys here, let alone beat them, that I have to embrace her whole-heartedly. It's a weakness of mine. (Along with cute markings and Sadler's Wells blood, making Rachel pretty much the whole enchilada for me.)

I dislike Jess Jackson for a number of reasons, but I refuse to let him spoil this filly for me. Since I don't have TVG anymore and I avoid certain racing forums, all I get to see are the races themselves. I don't hear or read any of the bragging and hyperbole. I let the filly's performance speak for itself.

So that said, the Woodward was a brilliant performance even if it wasn't as visually impressive as the Haskell for example. How many other horses can burn through a fast first quarter and a pretty quick half and still have gas in the tank to hold off a hard-closing rival? Rachel wouldn't even let Macho Again pass her in the gallop out. That's one determined filly.

Her time of 1:48.29 was respectable if average. Interestingly, her time was faster than that of Curlin (1:49.34), Lawyer Ron (1:48.60), and Saint Liam (1:49.07), all notable recent winners (and all older than three when they won).

But we know Rachel can cover 9 furlongs 5 to 10 lengths faster that she did in the Woodward when she's allowed to sit off the pace as witnessed by the Haskell (1:47.21) and Mother Goose (1:46.33) respectively. It should be noted that Rachel now owns the record in the Mother Goose and she is the second fastest Haskell winner of all time, only a fifth of a second behind the tied records of Bet Twice and Majestic Light.

So, to summarize:

* Rachel is the first filly of any age to win the Woodward
* the first 3 year-old to win the Woodward in 15 years
* one of a handful of 3 YO fillies to beat older males in open company
* one of only 2 fillies to win the Haskell
* ran the second fastest Haskell in history
* owns the stakes record and margin record in the Mother Goose
* first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness
* only horse to win the Preakness from the outside post
* second fastest Kentucky Oaks winner
* owns the margin record for the KY Oaks

And if she wins HOTY, she will be the first 3 YO filly since 1945 to do so, and one of only a handful of fillies/mares of any age to win HOTY.

So I think that makes her pretty damn special.

Lest I seem like a hypocrite, I disliked Curlin for much the same reasons that people seem to dislike Rachel---namely, his owner was being an ass and crowing about how Curlin was one of the all-time greats. Excuse me while I gag. When the horse can back up the hyperbole, like Rachel has done as bulleted above, that's great. But Curlin couldn't. If he hadn't broken Cigar's earnings record, he'd be a bit of a "what have you done for me lately? nothing" kind of horse. (And the earnings thing is a farce anyway with the huge purses for the DWC and BC Classic.)

The only records Curlin came close to, besides the money, were:

* equaled stakes record in the Preakness (as did Street Sense)
* third fastest DWC win

The rest of his times were average or even slow, so even though he was winning, he was beating up on weak fields (barely) and not even remotely challenging the clock. Nothing he accomplished on the track even remotely approachs those of true all-time greats like Spectacular Bid, Secretariat, Citation, etc. Rachel may have slaughtered some weak horses, too, and I'm not saying she's an all-time great yet, but at least she was running to beat the band.

She's earned her bragging rights. Curlin never did.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

The Rachel Alexandra saga

The Kentucky Oaks, run the day before the Derby, is often overshadowed by the glamour of that race and the hopes of a Triple Crown winner in the making. This year, however, despite the enjoyable underdog story of Derby winner Mine That Bird, the filly Rachel Alexandra still came out looking like the better horse:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNkBuJtds58

Granted, with the scratch of Justwhistledixie and the absence of Stardom Bound, the Oaks field was on the light side. The way Rachel won though is what made her look every inch the superstar. Her jockey Calvin Borel never touched her with the whip or shook the reins at her to ask her to run; she just went on by the field at cruising speed and still came within a fifth of a second of the stakes record while winning by the biggest margin in Oaks history. Had Calvin cranked her up and really asked for speed, one can only imagine what she would have done. Just for starters, I'd think the stakes record would have fallen by a full second.

Rachel's undeniable brilliance makes her an easy horse to cheer for, but until yesterday, her connections were also a large part of her story. Her trainer, the likable Hal Wiggins, has been in the racing game for 40 years and has waited all his life for a horse like Rachel. The Oaks was his first Grade 1 win.

Her jockey Calvin Borel won many fans with his infectious high spirits after winning the Derby in 2007 with Street Sense, and he did so again with his excitement and praise of Rachel after the Oaks. “She is the best horse I’ve ever been on, and I don’t know how good she is,” said Borel, who won the Kentucky Derby on Street Sense. “Street Sense was a good horse; he had a good turn of foot. But until I really have to ask her, I don’t know how good she is. She’s incredible.”

Rachel has never been beaten with Calvin in the saddle.

Even before the Oaks, many pundits and fans thought the filly would have had the Derby all her own way had she been entered, and naturally after the race, those thoughts were even more prevalent. When asked, Wiggins said, "We're not going to look back. We're going to enjoy this. We're not going to have any regrets."

Her owner went one step further and expressed the belief that fillies should run against fillies and leave the boys to themselves (which I feel is rather sexist, but I'm not sure the horses care one way or the other).

All that changed Wednesday, only days after the Oaks, when it was announced that Jess Jackson of Stonestreet Stables had purchased Rachel Alexandra for a rumored $10 million. The filly now resides in Steve Asmussen's barn. Hal Wiggins has put on a brave face for the press, but I can only imagine how devastated he must be. To have a filly like that in his barn with such a bright future, and then overnight, nothing.

IEAH receives a fair amount of fan ire for buying champions instead of making them, but at least when they purchased I Want Revenge earlier this spring, they kept him with the trainer who knew him inside out. Why mess with a good thing after all? The same thing applies here. Asmussen has had and still has good horses in his barn. He had Curlin for 2 years for pity's sake (another horse yanked away from the original trainer). Does he really need Rachel on his resume more than Hal Wiggins? I think not. Especially given Asmussen's history of suspensions for doping his horses...

Though it has yet to be confirmed, rumors are flying that Rachel will be entered in the Preakness and possibly the Belmont. While it is exciting to think of her facing the boys, it puts Calvin Borel in one hell of a predicament. Does he ride Mine That Bird, the horse he won the Derby on, or does he throw away the chance at a Triple Crown and ride the filly, the best horse he said he's ever ridden?

Wednesday, February 11, 2009